Sharing link to software installer

When sharing a link to a software installer what is the preferred UX pattern, to share a link to a download page or a direct link to the downloadable executable?

Using GIMP as an example...

Context...

  • Sharing website content via email or social media
  • Assume sharing is the result of an action taken by a user who wants to refer another user to a file for download

Primary UX concerns...

  • present a link that is easily copied and shared
  • present a link that an end user will trust, feel safe clicking
  • minimize end user surprise by the action triggered when shared link is clicked

Links to supporting evidence or references are greatly appreciated.